Iraq War : Seven Years

Today marks the completion of seven years of US second invasion of Iraq. It was today in 2003 that American Abrams rolled into the Iraq, and lot of water has flown down Tigris by now. So an obvious question is was Iraq worth seven years of American blood, dollars and time (not belittling the contribution of the "Coalition of the Willing"). The answer is not that easy as you may think so. To see the picture in totality, you need a bigger construct. American ambition (call it Bush' ambition, it doesn't matter) in middle east was shaped by that fateful morning in mid-town Manhattan. After that US wore a tinted glasses with cross hairs where everything seemed to be a moving target & a potential threat. Iraq seemed to be an obvious target. There was history for it as well. Plus the CIA did a really good job(?) in flunking up intelligence of illicit uranium linked to Iraq. It was not that only Bush wanted war, when marines entered Baghdad, Bush's approval rating were record high, denoting widespread approval of his job in Iraq. At that time, the war seemed to be worth fighting for, even if there was collateral damage for America.

The problem started when America rammed into the driver's seat & not knowing how to drive. There were colossal failures in dealing with former Baathist & disbanded Iraqi armed forces. Plan B was not a choice then, because there was not even Plan A. All America had were newly painted humvees that they rolled that into the capital thinking they will be welcomed & indeed they were welcomed initially. But as the days passed by, a visible chaos in urban settlements, the disbanded Sunni majority armed forces become a freelancing mercenary carving out their areas of influence. When these areas began to intersect with Shiite areas of fiefdom, what followed was a carnage, where America took it on the chin & Al Queda (AQ) had all the prime footage. Then the coalition 'surge' followed which has brought a little semblance of sanity to Baghdad & other urban areas. I must give it to Bush that he has achieved some success in restoring order to those killing suburbs of Baghdad like Sadr City. Even I was sceptical if the surge would work especially in the desert expanse of Al Anbar, but it worked partly due to more boots on ground, Sunni tribe joining the fight against AQ, and alienation of Sunni masses with AQ besides Shiite factions backing down. Since the summer of 2007, the violence has been on the downward trend and the number of American soldiers have dropped to there lowest numbers since 2003 with complete with drawl by 2011. The elections had just been completed and they seems to be by and large peaceful, giving hope that this freckled country can still find its feet and prosper. But the Iraqi landscape is still deeply fragmented & this draw down of forces could hold ominous potent. Firstly the ability of AQ to still do mischief through a shock-and-awe campaign. Secondly the critical question of Kurdish areas and the fate of Kirkuk. Thirdly the criminalization of the Iraqi society. Forth, Iran. Fifth is the schism between Shiite factions. Sixth, is alienation of Sunni's with the Shiite led government.

Still all are are hopeful that the worst is over for Iraq and challenges going forward are not going to be as existential as they were before. I am hooting for optimism this time, after failing miserably on my misgivings on the effectiveness of the "surge".

My Take On American Politics

An open letter from Iranian intelligence. Note the subtle satire of the editorial & the latest release of the NIE report on Iran has reinforced that the intelligence (and ground reality) is hopelessly out of sync with the perceptions of the administration. This is a silent political earthquake that has been delivered to the neo-con lobby led by Dick Cheney that has fully disturbed the pawns on the Great chessboard. This is not new, not now not after that Iraqi disaster. There is a certain air of cynicism that has gripped the American mainstream media since the Bush's second term. Everybody on TV talks of the nation that has lost its way, even though you don't feel it that way when you talk to people or interact with them. Maybe I was never with people that really mattered. After spending a decent time in American liberal heartland, I have realized that Bush has neither the support of liberals nor conservatives. He is like a whipping post that everybody likes to whip religiously. But there is the catch, I don't he is the main problem, he may be a polarizing figure in the centre at best, but he is not dictating the American politics.

Instead it is that the conservatives & liberals are tied around there extremes so tightly that there is no middle ground, & neither any hope of it. Nobody talks of sub-prime or health care or immigration, instead the whole energy is being spend on creation, evolution, abortion & debating who is the biggest tax liberal. I used to think earlier who are these people who have such utter faith in creationism or anti-choice or anti-stem cell research, but having lived there I have come to know that an average white American living in rural America is church going, does not seem to like gays, republican, creationist, pro-life & fiscally conservative & is against immigrants or American jobs being outsourced. And with such a large population feeling marginalized by successive liberal regimes & the democratic penchant for big business & outsourcing, its payback time. Therefore even with so much knee jerk reaction to Bush's presidency, it won't be easy for democrats to take the Oval office back. But in all this confusion & stalemate one thing is clear, that conservatism is in & on TV it is big business. Every evening on CNN there is a conservative show - Lou Dobbs Show, even though I don't like the fear-mongering tone of the show or the anchor, but the show whole raison d'etre is to provoke fear about everything & anything, about oil money buying US ports/NASDAQ/highways, about outsourcing, about immigration, about Chinese imports, about Iran. He seems to have lot of audience though. I guess conservatism is a safe bet, always, at least the onus of change is no longer there.

How To Lose The Global War On Terror

Those who follow the geo-politics quite closely may be feeling a bit disdained by the ugly turn of events in the middle east. When the third gulf war started in March 2003 there were couple of objectives that the US had in mind, firstly get rid of Saddam Hussein & secondly to make Iraq as a beacon of hope & democracy in the autocratic & theocratic middle east (never mind the WMD's, they were never a reason).

It has been a brutal & tumultuous 4 years for the region & though Saddam is no more, the region is slowly becoming a nemesis for the coalition. The situation on the ground is unravelling into myriad battlegrounds where the enemy is different in each of them or most of the times its unknown. Iraq post-surge is still as ungoverned and deadly as it was last year end, if not worse. There are subtle indications that things are going to get much worse in the region before they get any better. Shiite and Kurdish are now acting in unison against the Sunnis in north of Baghdad. There is a strong possibility of Turkey making an incursion in northern Iraq to quell the Kurdish insurrection that is definitely bound make the situation more complex. Several Al Queada affiliated organizations are battling it out real hard with Lebanese forces in Palestine refugee camps, meanwhile another anti-Syria politician is killed in Beirut. There are also reports that Syria may be preparing for a war with Israel, and though Israel can easily shrug off Syria in a convention warfare, in an as-symmetrical battlefield (with Hezbolla and Hamas) Syria may just be able to bring Israel to the negotiating table for Golan Heights. Elsewhere Hamas has taken over Gaza strip practically diving the fledgling Palestine state into two & opening up room for more bloodshed in West Bank where Fatah is strong.

The signs don't augur well for the region and definitely things can go much worse with the Iranian connection to all these muck going around. The region is pretty much sitting on a tinder-box right now. So much for the beacon of democracy radiating out the virtues of people rule, Iraq has become a focal point and the breeding grounds for the extremists in the region spilling weapons and fighters for region and far.

Middle East Roundup

After finishing four years fighting a phony war in Iraq, which is going nowhere for America despite the 'surge' and five years of quagmire in Afghanistan which though looks winnable but for the lack of interest by NATO and U.S. We now have Iran and America barrelling towards inevitable war even though no sides want it. America is not in the pink of health militarily while Iran despite the dire warning of rising Shiite influence is still a minnows in normal times if it comes to the inevitable. But one thing we must remember that we are not living in normal times. Here is a quick lie down of major players in this new Gulf and Persian confrontation.

Iran and Saudi Arabia - Keepers Of The Faith : Both don't go along well due to theological differences over interpretation over Islam, but these differences are more superficial in the face of common enemy (read U.S.) .The house of Saud is worried over Iran's rising role and nuclear ambitions besides the sizeable restless Shiite population in Eastern Arabia. There were rumours going round that Saudi are purposefully pumping more oil in the market to depress the prices do decrease Iran's bargaining power. So it means Saudi & US go along well, that not the case exactly. Saudi king terms Iraq invasion as illegal (?) maybe its a ploy to be not seen very close to Americans as in the Arab streets Israel/Palestine have greater mind share than some shady allegations over Iran. But the anxiety over rising Shiite power in capitals of Arabia, Egypt and Jordan is a genuine, as Iran and Saudi Arabia both vie to be the beacon of Muslim world.

Iraq - Extended Battleground : Its early days yet but the surge hasn't worked, despite all the optimism. Iran now has another front where it can slowly bleed american forces without it getting visibly involved. The Iraqi police and army has been entrenched by Iranian agencies that can defect to Iranian side in case of future conflict. Besides Iran has a spiritual, economic, military influence in Iraq that would make life hell for Americans if it wants to.

Afghanistan - The Great Game -II : Taliban are back with a bang with there promised summer offensive and hordes of suicide bombers. NATO though looks promising but things may go downhill if tension with Iran flares up. Iran still has quite a influence in eastern especially in Herat region. Besides I don't think america can fight in three theatres of war simultaneously.

Pakistan - The Pimp : Pakistan looks shaky as if it may collapse any-time, Musharaff has touched a honeycomb by sacking chief justice, the fundamentalist are gaining ground. The supposed 'peace deals' in Waziristan/FATA and continued Taliban violence shows lack of federal control outside the settled areas. Besides Pakistan is being used to launch covert operations in Iran's restive Sistan Baluchistan.

Turkey - The Dark Horse : Everybody seems to forgets Turkey when they discuss middle east.Turkey and Iran are close partly because they share the Kurdish problem. In case of any future conflict, one can rest assured that Turkey is going to stay neutral. But same can not be said in Iraq's case where a planned vote in Kurdish areas is keeping Turkey on the boil for the fear that it may empower Turkish Kurds.

Israel - The Last Piece : Any conflict in middle east is incomplete without the usual baiting targets, but Iran now has power projection in form of Hizballa and Hamas (remember last year Lebanon war and the beating Israel's IDF got). Also Syria has its Golan Heights, Lebanon, Hizballa plus the close friendship with Iran on the platter.

Rest Of The World - Iran? Who: Apart from the rabble rousing Sunni trio (Arabia, Egypt & Jordan), rest of the Arab world is pretty much neutral or themselves messed up to contribute to America's war effort. Same is the case with NATO, where even genuine causes like Afghanistan are not getting much help from its contributing members.

Non State Player (Osama) - Smiling On T.V : (in case he decides to release a video) They have a new sanctuary now, in Pakistan's FATA areas. Who needs Afghanistan now ?

I 'm surprised by the influence Cheney's camp have over american establishment, with so many pressure points and militarily already thinly stretched, attacking Iran seems so unfathomable and downright foolish.