The Cartographer's Surreal Dream

Today is a good day for India. It is not everyday you go about fixing a seventy year old nightmare. The nightmares I am talking about are the intractable border disputes that India has with pretty much with all its neighbours.

India and Bangladesh signed the Land Border Agreement (LBA) today that fixes the seventy year old monstrosity that has defined their border and made life miserable for people inhabiting these enclaves. I wonder why it took so long to fix a problem that was so idiotic to begin with. For the people living in those enclaves, it is probably an end to uncertainty, end of abandonment, of the state failing to provide even basic services.

Just to give you an idea of how absurd that situation was, check the image below. The area in pink is Bangladesh and inside it is an Indian enclave and inside is it a Bangladesh enclave and inside it is an Indian enclave. Now that is some cartographer's surreal dream. I am pretty sure the situation for people living in these ridiculous enclaves were of dread and not of dream!

What's Next?

After Tunis, Cairo is the other capital that has fallen to people power frustrated over the lack of reforms, employment and long reigned monarchs that are aloof to the sufferings of the street. Of the 22 countries that constitute the Arab League, only 3 were democracies. The rest 19 (including Tunisia & Egypt) were ruled by despots and autocrats. So there are still 17 more color revolutions waiting to happen. Wonder if there are so many colors available :) The 3 members that are democratic are Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine Territories. Each of the three are still mired in no less existential crises at home. So democracy or no democracy, this region will never have a slow news day i guess. Anyways, hiccups in democratic setups in these countries is no excuse to authoritarian regimes that Arab world is so full of. Three Cheers to the people power and remember there are 17 more to go! Keep the ammo ready and dry!

What Tunisia Portends

Last week was one of the rare weeks of change in the middle east or lets say the broader Arab world. After being in power for better part of 25 years, the president of this small Mediterranean country was forced to flee the country. Let me just give you facts as to why this is important. The whole Arab world from Morocco to Iran (Iran & Turkey and not exactly Arab, but we are still branding them for region's entirety.) is filled with despots, monarch and president-for-life types rulers. This is one place where democracy has still to find its feet. Maybe this could be the trigger for broader change. The rulers of Egypt, Algeria and others need to be worried that their local alienated population does not take cues from events unfolding in Tunisia. The problems with this region are unique, especially in the sense that the region as such is not poor. Tunisia has oil wealth as well as tourism, but given the rapid population growth rates that Arab countries are experiencing, jobs are not being created to absorb them. So alienation and frustration is spilling on to streets and since there are no checks & balances in the political system, no safety valves.. it boils over. This problem is same as what is staring in the face of Egypt, Morocco and countless others. Add to this mix, the rising militant Islam, the growth of conservative Muslim influence, Al Queda lurking in the shadows in the vast Sahara and extreme distribution of oil wealth, these events have the power to reshape the entire Arab landscape. Time will tell if a small vegetable vendor's death was the harbinger of change sweeping the vast desert expanse. Time will tell!

Iraq War : Seven Years

Today marks the completion of seven years of US second invasion of Iraq. It was today in 2003 that American Abrams rolled into the Iraq, and lot of water has flown down Tigris by now. So an obvious question is was Iraq worth seven years of American blood, dollars and time (not belittling the contribution of the "Coalition of the Willing"). The answer is not that easy as you may think so. To see the picture in totality, you need a bigger construct. American ambition (call it Bush' ambition, it doesn't matter) in middle east was shaped by that fateful morning in mid-town Manhattan. After that US wore a tinted glasses with cross hairs where everything seemed to be a moving target & a potential threat. Iraq seemed to be an obvious target. There was history for it as well. Plus the CIA did a really good job(?) in flunking up intelligence of illicit uranium linked to Iraq. It was not that only Bush wanted war, when marines entered Baghdad, Bush's approval rating were record high, denoting widespread approval of his job in Iraq. At that time, the war seemed to be worth fighting for, even if there was collateral damage for America.

The problem started when America rammed into the driver's seat & not knowing how to drive. There were colossal failures in dealing with former Baathist & disbanded Iraqi armed forces. Plan B was not a choice then, because there was not even Plan A. All America had were newly painted humvees that they rolled that into the capital thinking they will be welcomed & indeed they were welcomed initially. But as the days passed by, a visible chaos in urban settlements, the disbanded Sunni majority armed forces become a freelancing mercenary carving out their areas of influence. When these areas began to intersect with Shiite areas of fiefdom, what followed was a carnage, where America took it on the chin & Al Queda (AQ) had all the prime footage. Then the coalition 'surge' followed which has brought a little semblance of sanity to Baghdad & other urban areas. I must give it to Bush that he has achieved some success in restoring order to those killing suburbs of Baghdad like Sadr City. Even I was sceptical if the surge would work especially in the desert expanse of Al Anbar, but it worked partly due to more boots on ground, Sunni tribe joining the fight against AQ, and alienation of Sunni masses with AQ besides Shiite factions backing down. Since the summer of 2007, the violence has been on the downward trend and the number of American soldiers have dropped to there lowest numbers since 2003 with complete with drawl by 2011. The elections had just been completed and they seems to be by and large peaceful, giving hope that this freckled country can still find its feet and prosper. But the Iraqi landscape is still deeply fragmented & this draw down of forces could hold ominous potent. Firstly the ability of AQ to still do mischief through a shock-and-awe campaign. Secondly the critical question of Kurdish areas and the fate of Kirkuk. Thirdly the criminalization of the Iraqi society. Forth, Iran. Fifth is the schism between Shiite factions. Sixth, is alienation of Sunni's with the Shiite led government.

Still all are are hopeful that the worst is over for Iraq and challenges going forward are not going to be as existential as they were before. I am hooting for optimism this time, after failing miserably on my misgivings on the effectiveness of the "surge".

Afghanistan : Great Game Or Great Conundrum

So we are now taking significant collateral damage in Afghanistan as well, I wonder what choices we have, because there appears to be a method in these regular attacks now. Either 'they' wants to intimidate us into either leaving Afghanistan or maybe reinforcing our presence there (by being part of ISAF and sending combat troops, which I don't think is that bad an idea). I am using they because I doubt if militant forces indeed are being driven from Quetta or Islamabad. The myriad factions that stretch from Quetta up to the Wakhan corridor have no homogeneous identity or chain of command per-se. This is peculiar, because the symptom is same for all these factions but the panacea is all different. Consider this belt of resistance as a part of bigger militant Islam, but the solution can be found by dealing at each tribe level & each federal agency level, something that was done very successfully in Al Anbar in Iraq, instead of fire-bombing it.

Back to India's unease, there is hardly any take-aways from this situation, I guess these are the birth pangs for a rising regional power in the making. The power projection and the influence do have there short comings. The best we can do is to stay put and maybe increase our security posse to safeguard Indian citizens who are in the line of fire. As for Pakistan's direct or indirect involvement in this attack, it doesn't really matter. I think the grave has been dug for Pakistan (so even if its not a grave, believe me it will be a deep pit), and they would be lucky to not have a independent jihadi state encroaching at their periphery.

Neighbourhood Watch - Pakistan

Well to be frank those who were shocked by Benazair Bhutto brutal death, this was waiting to happen & I guess she had a hint of it coming, maybe she was a fatalist. For some people it is the reputation that they have to live up to, even if that means courting death. I guess she was that kind of a daredevil. But to say that all was lost for Pakistan & sanity in the neighbourhood's that day in Liaquat Park would be far from truth. I agree she was the best bet in such a violent crucible that Pakistan has become, but the country is not falling apart. Outside of the frontier areas of NWFP-FATA & Baluchistan there is a semblance of sanity & normalcy in Punjabi & Sindhi heartland. True there have been violence in settled areas of Swat & Rawalpindi's but these areas are the fringes of the Taliban territory & hence bound to suffer some collateral damage. The reason I believe that things can not go down further from here for Pakistan is based on 3 reasons

#1 Inability of Taliban to move beyond tribal areas - Insurgency is okay, but to run a parallel government requires you physically control huge swathe of settled areas of NWFP & Punjab. They have been unable to do so & their move into Swat valley failed miserably. They do not have so many foot soldiers to make their writ run outside of tribal areas. Taliban strategy has always been to thrive on confusion (Afghanistan) & master the tribal juggernaut (Waziristan).

# 2 Army,America & Bomb - Pakistan Army & America have huge stakes that things don't unravel further. Balkanization is one thing that America can not afford.The Bomb is one reason, Iran & Afghanistan is another, Bin Laden is third, 165 million angry people is fourth, & American standing in Islamic world & its pipe dream of making this country a beacon of democracy. One big unknown out here is the integrity of the Pakistani army.

# 3 Pakistani people - Nobody in the glitzy towns of Punjab & Sind want to be under a Taliban regime. I guess most of the middle & urban class would no like to live under veil & a beard. There are fringe sections to society that are more tuned to radical ideas but I doubt if they have the numbers to control the destiny of 165 million people.

So what the future holds, It is quite likely that things could worsen before they get any better, but I don't foresee state of Pakistan falling apart. Also U.S. would try to now to go behind covers as its masterly approach is being used by jihadis to fuel anger. The move to democracy will falter, instead a spring offensive next year when snow melts is very likely. Pakistan would then march into tribal areas, but the win would be pyrrhic indeed.

How To Lose The Global War On Terror

Those who follow the geo-politics quite closely may be feeling a bit disdained by the ugly turn of events in the middle east. When the third gulf war started in March 2003 there were couple of objectives that the US had in mind, firstly get rid of Saddam Hussein & secondly to make Iraq as a beacon of hope & democracy in the autocratic & theocratic middle east (never mind the WMD's, they were never a reason).

It has been a brutal & tumultuous 4 years for the region & though Saddam is no more, the region is slowly becoming a nemesis for the coalition. The situation on the ground is unravelling into myriad battlegrounds where the enemy is different in each of them or most of the times its unknown. Iraq post-surge is still as ungoverned and deadly as it was last year end, if not worse. There are subtle indications that things are going to get much worse in the region before they get any better. Shiite and Kurdish are now acting in unison against the Sunnis in north of Baghdad. There is a strong possibility of Turkey making an incursion in northern Iraq to quell the Kurdish insurrection that is definitely bound make the situation more complex. Several Al Queada affiliated organizations are battling it out real hard with Lebanese forces in Palestine refugee camps, meanwhile another anti-Syria politician is killed in Beirut. There are also reports that Syria may be preparing for a war with Israel, and though Israel can easily shrug off Syria in a convention warfare, in an as-symmetrical battlefield (with Hezbolla and Hamas) Syria may just be able to bring Israel to the negotiating table for Golan Heights. Elsewhere Hamas has taken over Gaza strip practically diving the fledgling Palestine state into two & opening up room for more bloodshed in West Bank where Fatah is strong.

The signs don't augur well for the region and definitely things can go much worse with the Iranian connection to all these muck going around. The region is pretty much sitting on a tinder-box right now. So much for the beacon of democracy radiating out the virtues of people rule, Iraq has become a focal point and the breeding grounds for the extremists in the region spilling weapons and fighters for region and far.

Middle East Roundup

After finishing four years fighting a phony war in Iraq, which is going nowhere for America despite the 'surge' and five years of quagmire in Afghanistan which though looks winnable but for the lack of interest by NATO and U.S. We now have Iran and America barrelling towards inevitable war even though no sides want it. America is not in the pink of health militarily while Iran despite the dire warning of rising Shiite influence is still a minnows in normal times if it comes to the inevitable. But one thing we must remember that we are not living in normal times. Here is a quick lie down of major players in this new Gulf and Persian confrontation.

Iran and Saudi Arabia - Keepers Of The Faith : Both don't go along well due to theological differences over interpretation over Islam, but these differences are more superficial in the face of common enemy (read U.S.) .The house of Saud is worried over Iran's rising role and nuclear ambitions besides the sizeable restless Shiite population in Eastern Arabia. There were rumours going round that Saudi are purposefully pumping more oil in the market to depress the prices do decrease Iran's bargaining power. So it means Saudi & US go along well, that not the case exactly. Saudi king terms Iraq invasion as illegal (?) maybe its a ploy to be not seen very close to Americans as in the Arab streets Israel/Palestine have greater mind share than some shady allegations over Iran. But the anxiety over rising Shiite power in capitals of Arabia, Egypt and Jordan is a genuine, as Iran and Saudi Arabia both vie to be the beacon of Muslim world.

Iraq - Extended Battleground : Its early days yet but the surge hasn't worked, despite all the optimism. Iran now has another front where it can slowly bleed american forces without it getting visibly involved. The Iraqi police and army has been entrenched by Iranian agencies that can defect to Iranian side in case of future conflict. Besides Iran has a spiritual, economic, military influence in Iraq that would make life hell for Americans if it wants to.

Afghanistan - The Great Game -II : Taliban are back with a bang with there promised summer offensive and hordes of suicide bombers. NATO though looks promising but things may go downhill if tension with Iran flares up. Iran still has quite a influence in eastern especially in Herat region. Besides I don't think america can fight in three theatres of war simultaneously.

Pakistan - The Pimp : Pakistan looks shaky as if it may collapse any-time, Musharaff has touched a honeycomb by sacking chief justice, the fundamentalist are gaining ground. The supposed 'peace deals' in Waziristan/FATA and continued Taliban violence shows lack of federal control outside the settled areas. Besides Pakistan is being used to launch covert operations in Iran's restive Sistan Baluchistan.

Turkey - The Dark Horse : Everybody seems to forgets Turkey when they discuss middle east.Turkey and Iran are close partly because they share the Kurdish problem. In case of any future conflict, one can rest assured that Turkey is going to stay neutral. But same can not be said in Iraq's case where a planned vote in Kurdish areas is keeping Turkey on the boil for the fear that it may empower Turkish Kurds.

Israel - The Last Piece : Any conflict in middle east is incomplete without the usual baiting targets, but Iran now has power projection in form of Hizballa and Hamas (remember last year Lebanon war and the beating Israel's IDF got). Also Syria has its Golan Heights, Lebanon, Hizballa plus the close friendship with Iran on the platter.

Rest Of The World - Iran? Who: Apart from the rabble rousing Sunni trio (Arabia, Egypt & Jordan), rest of the Arab world is pretty much neutral or themselves messed up to contribute to America's war effort. Same is the case with NATO, where even genuine causes like Afghanistan are not getting much help from its contributing members.

Non State Player (Osama) - Smiling On T.V : (in case he decides to release a video) They have a new sanctuary now, in Pakistan's FATA areas. Who needs Afghanistan now ?

I 'm surprised by the influence Cheney's camp have over american establishment, with so many pressure points and militarily already thinly stretched, attacking Iran seems so unfathomable and downright foolish.

The Coming Demographics Demon

I don't know if you people noticed it, but going through a lot of on-line publications & journals these days about how differential growth rates of different communities with in the society has a potential for future cataclysm. Most of this chatter is being directed towards the higher birth rates that the Muslim community has and the fact that the birth rates in whole of Europe has fallen below what is called as replacement level. You know, playing with demographics is like playing with fire, but on the other hand you can't deny the fact that demographics is issue that Europe has to face. If not on account of growth rate differences between communities then due to ongoing immigration from West Asia and North Africa..

Facing the Islamist Menace

And we thought this type of diabolical stuff only comes from third world countries and African genocides, where fundamentalist and clan loyalties ruled roost. Such jingoism usually comes out from Shiv Sena's mouthpiece. But this comes from the heart of american mainstream media, such is the fear psychosis that has inadvertently been injected into hearts and minds of the american establishment that they have started imagining things out of nowhere.. & the interesting part is nobody is complaining. I don't think Europe is falling to Islam any time soon. We are still long long way off. And for that matter how did this meaningless debate even get stated at the first place. Muslims in no European county exceeds 10% except Russia & Balkans. 10% can't become 50% any time soon. Such is the helpless or maybe say it callous attitude that there have been talks that the killings in Iraq are harbinger of coming peaceful times, and maybe it is by this genocide that peace will finally prevail, and the Christian west need not fear this churning in Islam. I guess most of the american thinkers must be betting on the Clash of Civilizations to be played out in Europe in the near future. I guess Osama and Zarqawi have already won the war.

Russia & The Muslim Russia

Don't know if the facts in the article are true, but it states that Russia will be Muslim majority before the mid century. Now this is interesting, but I doubt if its true.

The House Divided

The ceasefire have started between warring factions in this latest conflict in the Middle-East... but i doubt if the guns will be silent for long... all across the asian heartland this same scenario is being repeated on all frontiers... The asia of today looks pretty much the same as the europe at the beginning of the 20th century... with so many fault lines.. so many vested interest.. and so easy pressure-points.. and it has been only after two World Wars that the fight for peace in europe was settled for once and for all.. maybe the costs made war in europe an unfeasible option... but no one can deny the fact that the two wars settled all the disputes relating to territorial claims, ethnic and commercial and egoistic interests of not only german but the ottoman or hasburgs.. and after the second world war europe has seen a lull uptill the balkans civil war.. (not including the rivalry of cold war.. ) today asia is pretty much the same.. the conflict in middle east festers on with deadly portents.. the house of sauds is a risky proposition.. iraq is on brink on civil war.. iran and syria the new axis-of-evil.. afghanistan and pakistan back on the brink of chaos... the former CIS economies are the crucible of muslim fundamentalism and weak democracies ( plus the russian involvement.. ) The less said about the india and its immediate neighborhood, the better... meanwhile the world watches uneasily as the might of china rises both economically and militarily... while japan espouses are more aggressive foreign and defense policy... north korea is one loose cannon that can blow any day... taiwan..sparty islands... meanwhile external factors keep building up.. trade imbalances for one... the rising thirst for crude oil... america proposal on missile defense, on ringing-up china... rise of muslim fundamentalism... doesn't this fractured continent looks like one that will mend itself only after one big pyrrhic win...

~Teach Your Children Well~

The War From Where I Stand

after many year of peace ( relative peace i.e. notwithstanding the intifada... the occasional suicide bombing or attacks in sinai ) the Middle East is on the boil again.. the immediate provocation being the seizure of 3 israeli soldiers by hamas and Hezbollah.. but what followed these seizes was unwarranted.. it was as if isreal wanted to play the part that these militant group (and its backers ) had decided for it.. a highly disproportionate use of its overwhelming strike force advantage.. and even carpet-bombing areas south of beruit and Gaza Strip.. this doesn't make sense.. isreal has previously released palestine/lebanese prisoners in exchange for captured soldiers/civilians.. so what was different this time.. i think geo-political situation outside of isreal decided the course of action this time.. i believe having a conservative George Bush at capitol hill.. and with the pro-jewish lobby in full force it has emboldened the Zionists to act in this way.. and there appears to be some sort of tacit approval in Bush administration on the heavy-handed tactics of isreal.. and maybe there is some wanton thoughts in washington to use this war as a excuse to target syria and iran ( the fabled 'axis-of-evil' ) but iran is not some banana republic under the sun that can be subdued easily... its a full fledged islamic state that has been rabidly anti-US for the quarter of century now.. it has been espousing the case for nuclear weapons for some time now.. and nobody knows the extent of its advancement there.. ( but with north korea also in picture you can never be sure that iran doesn't have them.. ) besides anarchy in iraq and afghanistan have given it a kind'of strategic depth that this shiite state hadn't had in centuries.. and this $70 a barrel oil has made it flush with funds that will help it buy weapons,men and even support.. so any covert or overt action on iran will be hugely disastrous for the whole world.. and its aftermath will result in a crescent of resurgent shitte areas from kabul to beruit ,more mujhaids and anger on the street.. unstable saudi arabia.. , forget Oil , forget GWOT ( another fabled acronym for 'Global War On Terror...) well you cannot fully comprehend the dangers of where this could go... i guess Al-Queda will be the only one smiling...

~Rock Around The Clock~