The Resonableness Deficient

Reasoning is something that is really in short currency these days. Common sense and logical thought is being replaced by hysteria and arm-twisting. Couple of stories that have been playing over and over again in the media shows how the debate is polarizing the societies (in two vastly different countries) leaving the people in the middle squeezed and with no room for rapprochement.

Firstly, the gruesome murder of Pakistani Punjab's Governor. His being killed is not important now. What is of merit is the causes and the after response. The causes as flimsy as they may be shows the (Pakistani) society in general is losing grip with debate and reason, where loud talk gets the better of reasonable talk. Where external conspiracy theory is believed rather then looking at faults inside. Where tolerance is being replaced by mindless bigotry. And where the killer is being showered rose petals by the lawyers who must uphold justice and law of the land. Where the so called educated and facebook generation is opening approving the actions of the killer and the political class is condoning it. The debate over blasphemy has been needlessly played out in the media as if this is the only issue confronting the nation. Any talk of reason is shouted down as being anti-religious and atheist.

Secondly, the fatal shooting in Tucson which has dominated the American media and consciousness. Here the shooting unlike in Pakistan has united the nation in grief. No one is condoning the psychotic shooter's action. But the vast swath of the nation and its political class is an accessory to murder by not limiting access to guns. The whole debate over guns is something that is beyond my logic and reason. Any talk of gun control is met with such derision as if people have been asked to surrender there right to speech or privacy. In fact, it is easier to pass legislation to pry on people's phone than to control society's access to such high powered guns. Why does anyone need a pistol that can shoot 31 rounds without reload? Can any reasonable person answer this. Why would anyone need an AR-15 military assault rifle? Why? Why is there such a fear of government trampling over citizens rights? Aren't innocent law-abiding citizens rights being trampled by senseless killing in schools, churches and malls because some psychotic had access to such high powered gun due to lack of control and verification? Why such concern for people having access to these guns but none for over thousands killed in gun related violence. Here again the debate has not been over logic and reason but instead has been hijacked by rhetoric and name-calling by the 24 hour news media (as is the case in both countries).

In both the case we are not even going into the causes for these tragic events, and in any case there can be no justification for violence however 'aggrieved' the killer is. The real issues in my view is why is it so hard to talk and reason on issues where course of action is clear and logical without being branded Nazis or atheist. Back home, the lesser said the better. We are maybe getting more developed (economically), but in reality our brains are shriveling in same proportion. Last week a person died in Delhi unforgiving roads due to a (now common) case of road rage. This short fuse, this me.. my car.. my road craziness is insane. People are getting killed because nobody wants to reason, or even stop for a moment to ponder. There is no scope for middle ground. It is either my way or the highway.

Afghanistan : Great Game Or Great Conundrum

So we are now taking significant collateral damage in Afghanistan as well, I wonder what choices we have, because there appears to be a method in these regular attacks now. Either 'they' wants to intimidate us into either leaving Afghanistan or maybe reinforcing our presence there (by being part of ISAF and sending combat troops, which I don't think is that bad an idea). I am using they because I doubt if militant forces indeed are being driven from Quetta or Islamabad. The myriad factions that stretch from Quetta up to the Wakhan corridor have no homogeneous identity or chain of command per-se. This is peculiar, because the symptom is same for all these factions but the panacea is all different. Consider this belt of resistance as a part of bigger militant Islam, but the solution can be found by dealing at each tribe level & each federal agency level, something that was done very successfully in Al Anbar in Iraq, instead of fire-bombing it.

Back to India's unease, there is hardly any take-aways from this situation, I guess these are the birth pangs for a rising regional power in the making. The power projection and the influence do have there short comings. The best we can do is to stay put and maybe increase our security posse to safeguard Indian citizens who are in the line of fire. As for Pakistan's direct or indirect involvement in this attack, it doesn't really matter. I think the grave has been dug for Pakistan (so even if its not a grave, believe me it will be a deep pit), and they would be lucky to not have a independent jihadi state encroaching at their periphery.

Neighbourhood Watch - Pakistan

Well to be frank those who were shocked by Benazair Bhutto brutal death, this was waiting to happen & I guess she had a hint of it coming, maybe she was a fatalist. For some people it is the reputation that they have to live up to, even if that means courting death. I guess she was that kind of a daredevil. But to say that all was lost for Pakistan & sanity in the neighbourhood's that day in Liaquat Park would be far from truth. I agree she was the best bet in such a violent crucible that Pakistan has become, but the country is not falling apart. Outside of the frontier areas of NWFP-FATA & Baluchistan there is a semblance of sanity & normalcy in Punjabi & Sindhi heartland. True there have been violence in settled areas of Swat & Rawalpindi's but these areas are the fringes of the Taliban territory & hence bound to suffer some collateral damage. The reason I believe that things can not go down further from here for Pakistan is based on 3 reasons

#1 Inability of Taliban to move beyond tribal areas - Insurgency is okay, but to run a parallel government requires you physically control huge swathe of settled areas of NWFP & Punjab. They have been unable to do so & their move into Swat valley failed miserably. They do not have so many foot soldiers to make their writ run outside of tribal areas. Taliban strategy has always been to thrive on confusion (Afghanistan) & master the tribal juggernaut (Waziristan).

# 2 Army,America & Bomb - Pakistan Army & America have huge stakes that things don't unravel further. Balkanization is one thing that America can not afford.The Bomb is one reason, Iran & Afghanistan is another, Bin Laden is third, 165 million angry people is fourth, & American standing in Islamic world & its pipe dream of making this country a beacon of democracy. One big unknown out here is the integrity of the Pakistani army.

# 3 Pakistani people - Nobody in the glitzy towns of Punjab & Sind want to be under a Taliban regime. I guess most of the middle & urban class would no like to live under veil & a beard. There are fringe sections to society that are more tuned to radical ideas but I doubt if they have the numbers to control the destiny of 165 million people.

So what the future holds, It is quite likely that things could worsen before they get any better, but I don't foresee state of Pakistan falling apart. Also U.S. would try to now to go behind covers as its masterly approach is being used by jihadis to fuel anger. The move to democracy will falter, instead a spring offensive next year when snow melts is very likely. Pakistan would then march into tribal areas, but the win would be pyrrhic indeed.