One often gets down into the debate here (apart from the helpless arguments on Indian cricket team) as to why India is so backwards vis-a-vis America, why it is the quality of life in India is so modest compared to here. And the usual argument ends up blaming it to the huge population or that India is a recent democracy when compared with the America.
I don't believe that being young has contributed to the ills that our country faces, neither is population that big a millstone around India's neck. I believe it all boils to the institutions one country inherits or builds. Those are pillars around which a modern society revolves and functions. A group of people is just a crowd or a mob unless there are rules to make it orderly. What we have in India are weak institutions or establishments just overwhelmed with the internal contradictions that we inherited from British or because of our polity and society. I say it contradictions because of the various strands and seams of culture and ideas and future dreams that has engrossed the young multi-plural nation and its people. Add 60 years to it and the consensus was that we must had figured it right by now. But the reality is far far distant. We still are facing with critical if not existential issues, and there is still no urgency to get the institutions working. The usual refrain is that we are moving in right directions slowly and steadily, but do the people have that patience. The next wave of employment seeking youth are just arriving, young and restless and be rest assured they will not take things lying down.
Middle East Roundup
After finishing four years fighting a phony war in Iraq, which is going nowhere for America despite the 'surge' and five years of quagmire in Afghanistan which though looks winnable but for the lack of interest by NATO and U.S. We now have Iran and America barrelling towards inevitable war even though no sides want it. America is not in the pink of health militarily while Iran despite the dire warning of rising Shiite influence is still a minnows in normal times if it comes to the inevitable. But one thing we must remember that we are not living in normal times. Here is a quick lie down of major players in this new Gulf and Persian confrontation.
Iran and Saudi Arabia - Keepers Of The Faith : Both don't go along well due to theological differences over interpretation over Islam, but these differences are more superficial in the face of common enemy (read U.S.) .The house of Saud is worried over Iran's rising role and nuclear ambitions besides the sizeable restless Shiite population in Eastern Arabia. There were rumours going round that Saudi are purposefully pumping more oil in the market to depress the prices do decrease Iran's bargaining power. So it means Saudi & US go along well, that not the case exactly. Saudi king terms Iraq invasion as illegal (?) maybe its a ploy to be not seen very close to Americans as in the Arab streets Israel/Palestine have greater mind share than some shady allegations over Iran. But the anxiety over rising Shiite power in capitals of Arabia, Egypt and Jordan is a genuine, as Iran and Saudi Arabia both vie to be the beacon of Muslim world.
Iraq - Extended Battleground : Its early days yet but the surge hasn't worked, despite all the optimism. Iran now has another front where it can slowly bleed american forces without it getting visibly involved. The Iraqi police and army has been entrenched by Iranian agencies that can defect to Iranian side in case of future conflict. Besides Iran has a spiritual, economic, military influence in Iraq that would make life hell for Americans if it wants to.
Afghanistan - The Great Game -II : Taliban are back with a bang with there promised summer offensive and hordes of suicide bombers. NATO though looks promising but things may go downhill if tension with Iran flares up. Iran still has quite a influence in eastern especially in Herat region. Besides I don't think america can fight in three theatres of war simultaneously.
Pakistan - The Pimp : Pakistan looks shaky as if it may collapse any-time, Musharaff has touched a honeycomb by sacking chief justice, the fundamentalist are gaining ground. The supposed 'peace deals' in Waziristan/FATA and continued Taliban violence shows lack of federal control outside the settled areas. Besides Pakistan is being used to launch covert operations in Iran's restive Sistan Baluchistan.
Turkey - The Dark Horse : Everybody seems to forgets Turkey when they discuss middle east.Turkey and Iran are close partly because they share the Kurdish problem. In case of any future conflict, one can rest assured that Turkey is going to stay neutral. But same can not be said in Iraq's case where a planned vote in Kurdish areas is keeping Turkey on the boil for the fear that it may empower Turkish Kurds.
Israel - The Last Piece : Any conflict in middle east is incomplete without the usual baiting targets, but Iran now has power projection in form of Hizballa and Hamas (remember last year Lebanon war and the beating Israel's IDF got). Also Syria has its Golan Heights, Lebanon, Hizballa plus the close friendship with Iran on the platter.
Rest Of The World - Iran? Who: Apart from the rabble rousing Sunni trio (Arabia, Egypt & Jordan), rest of the Arab world is pretty much neutral or themselves messed up to contribute to America's war effort. Same is the case with NATO, where even genuine causes like Afghanistan are not getting much help from its contributing members.
Non State Player (Osama) - Smiling On T.V : (in case he decides to release a video) They have a new sanctuary now, in Pakistan's FATA areas. Who needs Afghanistan now ?
I 'm surprised by the influence Cheney's camp have over american establishment, with so many pressure points and militarily already thinly stretched, attacking Iran seems so unfathomable and downright foolish.
Iran and Saudi Arabia - Keepers Of The Faith : Both don't go along well due to theological differences over interpretation over Islam, but these differences are more superficial in the face of common enemy (read U.S.) .The house of Saud is worried over Iran's rising role and nuclear ambitions besides the sizeable restless Shiite population in Eastern Arabia. There were rumours going round that Saudi are purposefully pumping more oil in the market to depress the prices do decrease Iran's bargaining power. So it means Saudi & US go along well, that not the case exactly. Saudi king terms Iraq invasion as illegal (?) maybe its a ploy to be not seen very close to Americans as in the Arab streets Israel/Palestine have greater mind share than some shady allegations over Iran. But the anxiety over rising Shiite power in capitals of Arabia, Egypt and Jordan is a genuine, as Iran and Saudi Arabia both vie to be the beacon of Muslim world.
Iraq - Extended Battleground : Its early days yet but the surge hasn't worked, despite all the optimism. Iran now has another front where it can slowly bleed american forces without it getting visibly involved. The Iraqi police and army has been entrenched by Iranian agencies that can defect to Iranian side in case of future conflict. Besides Iran has a spiritual, economic, military influence in Iraq that would make life hell for Americans if it wants to.
Afghanistan - The Great Game -II : Taliban are back with a bang with there promised summer offensive and hordes of suicide bombers. NATO though looks promising but things may go downhill if tension with Iran flares up. Iran still has quite a influence in eastern especially in Herat region. Besides I don't think america can fight in three theatres of war simultaneously.
Pakistan - The Pimp : Pakistan looks shaky as if it may collapse any-time, Musharaff has touched a honeycomb by sacking chief justice, the fundamentalist are gaining ground. The supposed 'peace deals' in Waziristan/FATA and continued Taliban violence shows lack of federal control outside the settled areas. Besides Pakistan is being used to launch covert operations in Iran's restive Sistan Baluchistan.
Turkey - The Dark Horse : Everybody seems to forgets Turkey when they discuss middle east.Turkey and Iran are close partly because they share the Kurdish problem. In case of any future conflict, one can rest assured that Turkey is going to stay neutral. But same can not be said in Iraq's case where a planned vote in Kurdish areas is keeping Turkey on the boil for the fear that it may empower Turkish Kurds.
Israel - The Last Piece : Any conflict in middle east is incomplete without the usual baiting targets, but Iran now has power projection in form of Hizballa and Hamas (remember last year Lebanon war and the beating Israel's IDF got). Also Syria has its Golan Heights, Lebanon, Hizballa plus the close friendship with Iran on the platter.
Rest Of The World - Iran? Who: Apart from the rabble rousing Sunni trio (Arabia, Egypt & Jordan), rest of the Arab world is pretty much neutral or themselves messed up to contribute to America's war effort. Same is the case with NATO, where even genuine causes like Afghanistan are not getting much help from its contributing members.
Non State Player (Osama) - Smiling On T.V : (in case he decides to release a video) They have a new sanctuary now, in Pakistan's FATA areas. Who needs Afghanistan now ?
I 'm surprised by the influence Cheney's camp have over american establishment, with so many pressure points and militarily already thinly stretched, attacking Iran seems so unfathomable and downright foolish.
Quote Of The Day
I was reading 'The Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy', yet again. Found this rare gem between its more or less absurd pages. Thought I better bookmark it before I lose it again.
"I refuse to prove that I exist, for proof denies faith and without faith I am nothing."
"I refuse to prove that I exist, for proof denies faith and without faith I am nothing."
Evolution & God
Darwin's God.
God & Evolution don't gel, at least in my opinion. I have always been on the side of evolutionists blasting off at the creationists. The above article is more of a what role evolution played in out belief in God & Religion rather than what role God had in evolution. And since I have no belief in God as a concept, I will focus more on the other half, what part God played in creation. If you ask me how we are here, I hold particularly strong views against the creationist theory.
I 'm all for evolution. We & Everything-Living have evolved over millions of years from lower life forms to these complex forms. Its not from the hands of the Creator that we have been moulded, It is a constant play of hit & trial of evolution process. Evolution is a constant process. We are ever-evolving from millions of years & will continue to do so. The reason we don't see it is because the time lines involving evolution transcend our senses. It is happening as we sleep and as we live. Evolution has no path, it has no endpoint, it has no final destination as such.We don't arrive anywhere by evolving. It happens all by itself, and we can not stop it. To say that evolution had a goal in populating earth is a misnomer. We are here by chance, a mathematical improbability so as to say. We are there because our hands allowed us to efficiently use the giant brain that we evolved. Had any of the crucial links been missing we may have been obliterated form the face of the earth. In the last age where life form exploded, billions of life form evolved, evolution was and is a giant experiment. It is a huge petri-dish that manages all by itself, where every possible shape & concept is given a chance, and only fitter & more agile survive to constantly evolve to better shape & concept. No shape is perfect because no environment is perfect. Its a constant trade off between life & life supporter environment. This may sound too mechanical, but then it is the way it is.
God & Evolution don't gel, at least in my opinion. I have always been on the side of evolutionists blasting off at the creationists. The above article is more of a what role evolution played in out belief in God & Religion rather than what role God had in evolution. And since I have no belief in God as a concept, I will focus more on the other half, what part God played in creation. If you ask me how we are here, I hold particularly strong views against the creationist theory.
I 'm all for evolution. We & Everything-Living have evolved over millions of years from lower life forms to these complex forms. Its not from the hands of the Creator that we have been moulded, It is a constant play of hit & trial of evolution process. Evolution is a constant process. We are ever-evolving from millions of years & will continue to do so. The reason we don't see it is because the time lines involving evolution transcend our senses. It is happening as we sleep and as we live. Evolution has no path, it has no endpoint, it has no final destination as such.We don't arrive anywhere by evolving. It happens all by itself, and we can not stop it. To say that evolution had a goal in populating earth is a misnomer. We are here by chance, a mathematical improbability so as to say. We are there because our hands allowed us to efficiently use the giant brain that we evolved. Had any of the crucial links been missing we may have been obliterated form the face of the earth. In the last age where life form exploded, billions of life form evolved, evolution was and is a giant experiment. It is a huge petri-dish that manages all by itself, where every possible shape & concept is given a chance, and only fitter & more agile survive to constantly evolve to better shape & concept. No shape is perfect because no environment is perfect. Its a constant trade off between life & life supporter environment. This may sound too mechanical, but then it is the way it is.
The Coming Demographics Demon
I don't know if you people noticed it, but going through a lot of on-line publications & journals these days about how differential growth rates of different communities with in the society has a potential for future cataclysm. Most of this chatter is being directed towards the higher birth rates that the Muslim community has and the fact that the birth rates in whole of Europe has fallen below what is called as replacement level. You know, playing with demographics is like playing with fire, but on the other hand you can't deny the fact that demographics is issue that Europe has to face. If not on account of growth rate differences between communities then due to ongoing immigration from West Asia and North Africa..
Facing the Islamist Menace
And we thought this type of diabolical stuff only comes from third world countries and African genocides, where fundamentalist and clan loyalties ruled roost. Such jingoism usually comes out from Shiv Sena's mouthpiece. But this comes from the heart of american mainstream media, such is the fear psychosis that has inadvertently been injected into hearts and minds of the american establishment that they have started imagining things out of nowhere.. & the interesting part is nobody is complaining. I don't think Europe is falling to Islam any time soon. We are still long long way off. And for that matter how did this meaningless debate even get stated at the first place. Muslims in no European county exceeds 10% except Russia & Balkans. 10% can't become 50% any time soon. Such is the helpless or maybe say it callous attitude that there have been talks that the killings in Iraq are harbinger of coming peaceful times, and maybe it is by this genocide that peace will finally prevail, and the Christian west need not fear this churning in Islam. I guess most of the american thinkers must be betting on the Clash of Civilizations to be played out in Europe in the near future. I guess Osama and Zarqawi have already won the war.
Russia & The Muslim Russia
Don't know if the facts in the article are true, but it states that Russia will be Muslim majority before the mid century. Now this is interesting, but I doubt if its true.
Facing the Islamist Menace
And we thought this type of diabolical stuff only comes from third world countries and African genocides, where fundamentalist and clan loyalties ruled roost. Such jingoism usually comes out from Shiv Sena's mouthpiece. But this comes from the heart of american mainstream media, such is the fear psychosis that has inadvertently been injected into hearts and minds of the american establishment that they have started imagining things out of nowhere.. & the interesting part is nobody is complaining. I don't think Europe is falling to Islam any time soon. We are still long long way off. And for that matter how did this meaningless debate even get stated at the first place. Muslims in no European county exceeds 10% except Russia & Balkans. 10% can't become 50% any time soon. Such is the helpless or maybe say it callous attitude that there have been talks that the killings in Iraq are harbinger of coming peaceful times, and maybe it is by this genocide that peace will finally prevail, and the Christian west need not fear this churning in Islam. I guess most of the american thinkers must be betting on the Clash of Civilizations to be played out in Europe in the near future. I guess Osama and Zarqawi have already won the war.
Russia & The Muslim Russia
Don't know if the facts in the article are true, but it states that Russia will be Muslim majority before the mid century. Now this is interesting, but I doubt if its true.
The View Outside My Window
its a long weekend here & I 'm having rest, pretty much long rest from the blogsphere. I will be back though.. for sure :)
~Hope You're Feeling Better~
Method In Madness
i yesterday saw stanley kubrick's paths of glory... and today i read this piece of report on IHT... the build-a-war workshop... and i find a certain analogy from both as to how some people profit from sending other people to fight somebody else's worthless wars... and then you feel that these people in higher echelons of power, where life and death decisions are being made, they are more cheap then unknowns fighting in bigg boss or big brother (depending on which part of world you are living...) these people are cheats.. war profiteers... and spin doctors of the worst kind... look at the way the intel on iraq was twisted... and today similar reports of iran's involvement in arming shiite's have come... it's all coming to a full circle now... and the pattern is sickening though.. the problem is, any miscalculation by any of the sides.. and we have one helluva conflict on our hands from turkey to pakistan... and i don't think america has the stomach for it... at least for now...
~We Can Work It Out~
~We Can Work It Out~
That Elusive Life
you know... weekends are one huge disappointment that never fails to disappoint... you start longing for them on monday itself.. and by thursday evening, you are at your lively best.. only one more work day to weekend... on the friday evening, you feel like as if you have been released from a lifelong sentence... the friday's commute back home doesn't bother you... you feel your legs don't touch the grounds out of excitement... you think of stuff you gonna do this weekend... you think of the careless abandon that those two days will be... and you thank God for his big hearted-ness and for those two days when even the offices of hell are closed... and to be frank.. the real thing is big letdown... and then when its gone mostly doing nothing... you think what was the big fuss about it... but on the monday evening... you are back again yearning for that elusive weekend...
~King Of Pain~
~King Of Pain~
India Business Watch
NYT reports on signs that indian economy may be overheating and risks being tripped up..
Questions... Questions....
If Tesco and Wal-Mart are friends of the earth, are there any enemies left?
of the various topics that are close to my heart, one is global warming.. and of late one is hearing an increased chatter regarding it & its consequences.. i sincerely believe that global warming is for real.. and the more inaction we show over it.. the closer we are at the point of no return.. for time may come when the global warming engine could sustain itself with even zero emission.. some say we have already crossed the Rubicon.. i 'm not going into the virtues of it.. but there are some serious questions that needs to be addressed and some of these concern include the way developing countries (including india & china..) are evolving..
Question#1: Bush in his SOU speech talked of renewable fuels that would be mixed with conventional fossil fuels.. these other fuel sources are primarily corn based like ethanol.. but there is a limit to how much corn can be grown as land is limited.. and it makes sense to mix ethanol when crude is $70.. if it drops to $40.. would corn or other fuels still make sense.. ?
Question#2: Why is Bush not taxing gasoline as prices at pumps have fallen to $2 levels.. we have seen that higher prices inflates the sale of hybrid cars and depresses gas guzzlers..
Question#3: Why are developed countries not doing enough research on alternative energy sources, looking at the seriousness of the situation.. tax gasoline to generate funds, if funds is an issue.. how can you expect developing nations to do expensive research on these, where even malnutrition or malaria are unresolved legacies of the past.. to be frank they don't have the pockets for research..
Question#4: Why are developed countries not cutting emissions more sharply before asking the developing countries to do the needful.. cut your emissions first.. set an example for others to emulate.. all they do is a piecemeal approach...
Question#5: 'What about consuming less ?'.. why doesn't developed countries tells their citizens that their consumptions levels are unsustainable.. why not tell them about conservation.. especially here in america.. 'conservation' seems to be a pariah.. some kind of mental sickness.. what happens if india & china attain the same lifestyles of an average american.. what happens then.. & this has to happen someday..
Question#6: We know US is the biggest emitter.. but of late, we are hearing a chorus of voices as to how india & china will be becoming bigger emitters then america... hmmmm... so is india & china the problem now.. seems by hearing the voices that are emanating... why are we being taken to the table.. as if india/china single handedly uncorked the global warming genie.. what happened to the unbridled emissions by america & others for last 200 years from industrial revolutions... todays warming is due to these emissions & not due to any projected release by india & china... it is US that matters most on global warming policy for it created this monster.. directing the blame to india & china won't help.. why should we sacrifice over growth and our future good (mind you, not luxurious..) lifestyle at the altar of some climate change.. don't we have the right for good living or is it the sole prerogative of developed economies... some say that you can't ignore the fact that we are contributing significantly to the greenhouse gases.. nobody is denying it.. but, to give you a perspective if a average US citizen is emits 200 pounds of carbon(including breathing,transportation,fuels and all other chores that involve carbon..) and an indian emits 10 pounds (all inclusive..) where do you see the major chances that a cut is possible... its all crystal clear.. and these figures( between US & india... ) are comparable.. we are on the list (of top emitters) because we have numbers on our side.. not because some goddamn people who love to drive gas guzzlers or waste like anything... there can be no per-nation limits on emissions, if it has to be it has to per-capita limits... do americans have some innate rights for endless carbon emissions, while preaching developing countries to curb there living standards...
Question#7: What are india & china doing to curb there emissions, because they are part of the problem now.. we have to face it, if not today.. because i think india & china will be facing the brunt of any future climate change.. we have to act & act fast.. and show it to US, and shame them into acting...
The best possible way forward is to have some kind of emission cut targets for developed countries only... for now.. spend heavily on new research of alternative energy sources.. sell the technology to developing countries.. and maybe in the next rounds of emission cuts, expect developing world to be among the countries cutting emissions.. use the wealth of developed countries to generate & use energy efficiently, so that citizens of nations with living standards that are 10% of americas can continue to improve their own living standards.
But, Is that so simple... ?
~Castles Made of Sand~
of the various topics that are close to my heart, one is global warming.. and of late one is hearing an increased chatter regarding it & its consequences.. i sincerely believe that global warming is for real.. and the more inaction we show over it.. the closer we are at the point of no return.. for time may come when the global warming engine could sustain itself with even zero emission.. some say we have already crossed the Rubicon.. i 'm not going into the virtues of it.. but there are some serious questions that needs to be addressed and some of these concern include the way developing countries (including india & china..) are evolving..
Question#1: Bush in his SOU speech talked of renewable fuels that would be mixed with conventional fossil fuels.. these other fuel sources are primarily corn based like ethanol.. but there is a limit to how much corn can be grown as land is limited.. and it makes sense to mix ethanol when crude is $70.. if it drops to $40.. would corn or other fuels still make sense.. ?
Question#2: Why is Bush not taxing gasoline as prices at pumps have fallen to $2 levels.. we have seen that higher prices inflates the sale of hybrid cars and depresses gas guzzlers..
Question#3: Why are developed countries not doing enough research on alternative energy sources, looking at the seriousness of the situation.. tax gasoline to generate funds, if funds is an issue.. how can you expect developing nations to do expensive research on these, where even malnutrition or malaria are unresolved legacies of the past.. to be frank they don't have the pockets for research..
Question#4: Why are developed countries not cutting emissions more sharply before asking the developing countries to do the needful.. cut your emissions first.. set an example for others to emulate.. all they do is a piecemeal approach...
Question#5: 'What about consuming less ?'.. why doesn't developed countries tells their citizens that their consumptions levels are unsustainable.. why not tell them about conservation.. especially here in america.. 'conservation' seems to be a pariah.. some kind of mental sickness.. what happens if india & china attain the same lifestyles of an average american.. what happens then.. & this has to happen someday..
Question#6: We know US is the biggest emitter.. but of late, we are hearing a chorus of voices as to how india & china will be becoming bigger emitters then america... hmmmm... so is india & china the problem now.. seems by hearing the voices that are emanating... why are we being taken to the table.. as if india/china single handedly uncorked the global warming genie.. what happened to the unbridled emissions by america & others for last 200 years from industrial revolutions... todays warming is due to these emissions & not due to any projected release by india & china... it is US that matters most on global warming policy for it created this monster.. directing the blame to india & china won't help.. why should we sacrifice over growth and our future good (mind you, not luxurious..) lifestyle at the altar of some climate change.. don't we have the right for good living or is it the sole prerogative of developed economies... some say that you can't ignore the fact that we are contributing significantly to the greenhouse gases.. nobody is denying it.. but, to give you a perspective if a average US citizen is emits 200 pounds of carbon(including breathing,transportation,fuels and all other chores that involve carbon..) and an indian emits 10 pounds (all inclusive..) where do you see the major chances that a cut is possible... its all crystal clear.. and these figures( between US & india... ) are comparable.. we are on the list (of top emitters) because we have numbers on our side.. not because some goddamn people who love to drive gas guzzlers or waste like anything... there can be no per-nation limits on emissions, if it has to be it has to per-capita limits... do americans have some innate rights for endless carbon emissions, while preaching developing countries to curb there living standards...
Question#7: What are india & china doing to curb there emissions, because they are part of the problem now.. we have to face it, if not today.. because i think india & china will be facing the brunt of any future climate change.. we have to act & act fast.. and show it to US, and shame them into acting...
The best possible way forward is to have some kind of emission cut targets for developed countries only... for now.. spend heavily on new research of alternative energy sources.. sell the technology to developing countries.. and maybe in the next rounds of emission cuts, expect developing world to be among the countries cutting emissions.. use the wealth of developed countries to generate & use energy efficiently, so that citizens of nations with living standards that are 10% of americas can continue to improve their own living standards.
But, Is that so simple... ?
~Castles Made of Sand~
Are We There Yet ?
There has been perceptible hoopla over the report by investment bank Goldman Sachs.. which states that india's economy may surpass the US and be second only to china's by 2050.. its not something we didn't knew... everybody knows it all along.. given the growth rate differential (between india and developed economies..) and population we have, india will overtake western economies one day or another... it's all the question of 'when' and not 'how'.. the report says that this target maybe achieved much earlier than was previously predicted.. it quotes
[...]
India's growth acceleration since 2003 represented a structural increase rather than simply a cyclical upturn. It said productivity growth drove nearly half of overall growth and expected it to continue for some years.
[...]
you know, one needs to view these figures cautiously and not get carried away.. i feel that the increased growth rates ( 8 % instead of 6% before.. ) is more of a result of cyclical upturn (in commodities as well as world trade..) rather than any fundamental or structural reforms in india... i couldn't recall any great reforms undertaken by the UPA government... though productivity can be a factor, but i doubt if it can drive full 2% growth.. agreed that growth in US in nineties was driven by productivity gains... but we are long way off from that stage... and growth came when manufacturing had been hit hard by oil at $60+ a barrel... there has been hardly any sectoral reforms (except telecoms,airlines,insurance and possibly retail) and the entire growth engine (infrastructure.. power, shipping,public utilities,pension/financial ) hasn't seen much of improvement... neither do structural reforms (size of government continues to be bloated.. nor have we become reform friendly.. the agrarian crisis continues to affect rural india.. the bureaucratic red tape still persists..) the 2% extra growth is being generated by exports.. by IT/ITeS/Service & its side-effects (positive though...) on the other sectors (by means of increased consumption through added disposable incomes..) and the banks giving loans easily... its more of a credit driven growth rather than any fundamental difference in how economy is being run.. add to it the real state bubble that driving prices in class-A/B cities... the problem with this is that such run-away growth is that growth sometimes has its own momentum that just carries it even higher...sometimes leading to overheating.. or inflation... the important question is can we sustain these levels if we hit a downturn in world economy... (world trade & IT spending...) or if interest rate spikes... then can efficency and our economy alone generate an 8-9% growth Y-o-Y for say 5-10 year period... i doubt.. i may be skeptic... i may be wrong.... i would love to be wrong.. but then, 3 years of higher growth changes the perception... but perception is the not real thing... actions are...
~Hells Bells~
[...]
India's growth acceleration since 2003 represented a structural increase rather than simply a cyclical upturn. It said productivity growth drove nearly half of overall growth and expected it to continue for some years.
[...]
you know, one needs to view these figures cautiously and not get carried away.. i feel that the increased growth rates ( 8 % instead of 6% before.. ) is more of a result of cyclical upturn (in commodities as well as world trade..) rather than any fundamental or structural reforms in india... i couldn't recall any great reforms undertaken by the UPA government... though productivity can be a factor, but i doubt if it can drive full 2% growth.. agreed that growth in US in nineties was driven by productivity gains... but we are long way off from that stage... and growth came when manufacturing had been hit hard by oil at $60+ a barrel... there has been hardly any sectoral reforms (except telecoms,airlines,insurance and possibly retail) and the entire growth engine (infrastructure.. power, shipping,public utilities,pension/financial ) hasn't seen much of improvement... neither do structural reforms (size of government continues to be bloated.. nor have we become reform friendly.. the agrarian crisis continues to affect rural india.. the bureaucratic red tape still persists..) the 2% extra growth is being generated by exports.. by IT/ITeS/Service & its side-effects (positive though...) on the other sectors (by means of increased consumption through added disposable incomes..) and the banks giving loans easily... its more of a credit driven growth rather than any fundamental difference in how economy is being run.. add to it the real state bubble that driving prices in class-A/B cities... the problem with this is that such run-away growth is that growth sometimes has its own momentum that just carries it even higher...sometimes leading to overheating.. or inflation... the important question is can we sustain these levels if we hit a downturn in world economy... (world trade & IT spending...) or if interest rate spikes... then can efficency and our economy alone generate an 8-9% growth Y-o-Y for say 5-10 year period... i doubt.. i may be skeptic... i may be wrong.... i would love to be wrong.. but then, 3 years of higher growth changes the perception... but perception is the not real thing... actions are...
~Hells Bells~
What Is He Thinking !
so bush has walked the talk.. he managed to get more boots on the ground in iraq... i guess that was the easier part.. in spite of the non-binding resolution that being debated in washington here... but selling it to the people would be nearly impossible... four years of stalemate.. with no signs of any possible 'victory'... in any possible literal sense... but can he do something else besides what he has done... obviously he has the intel, but does intelligence pointed out that after steamrolling into iraq, they will be stuck up in the quagmire of insurgency that is technically a civil war.. so how can that intelligence be believed that 22000 more troops will turn the tide this time around... thats a mere fallacy.. i think its more of buying time tactics.. hoping that things just falls in place... wouldn't sending those men to afghanistan had been a better idea where NATO troops had been having a harrowing time against taliban.. and with the summers coming things are bound to get hotter again... doesn't it make better sense to at least salvage one theater instead of stuck up in both and ultimately losing both... and as if this was not enough he is sending another aircraft carrier to persian gulf as a show of strength to iran.. duh !! all the might of american military hasn't been able to bring peace to a single baghdad neighborhood, how can they claim to keep a leash on iran...
~Back Where You Belong~
~Back Where You Belong~
Frozen Thoughts
well.. this has to be one of the biggest breaks from the blogsphere.. ten days and no post.. not that i was busy, or maybe pondering.. i have gone over it... it was just that it didn't felt like writing... there were not much good things, bad things going around... writable things... after all blogging is just the manifestations of your daily experiences and feelings, and these feeling just make up words in your mind, and you need to pen them down to make room for the new ones.. its a constant process, i love being opinionated...for i hate being dumb... i can be numb, but not dumb.. and my feeling have been frozen by the dreaded winter chill of new england, but winter has its own charm.. you love the naked trees.. the frozen river thats flowing underneath... the group of ducks swimming in a small patch of water surrounded by all enclosing ice... you love the cold and stark boston skyline... it looks like a giant dystopian government machine on a clouded frigid day.. you love the sight of people all dressed in black with every type of cap conceivable... the light snow just takes you to those days when the snow would have mattered more than school homework... but i guess its not one of those days...
~Peaceful Easy Feeling~
~Peaceful Easy Feeling~
Three Years & Still Dreaming
today Jan 5.. I joined this organization three long years back exactly on this day.. and when i look back, it hasn't been that long.. time just went by.. maybe it just flew.. three years in one company.. Bingo ! maybe its time to think & re-think and still some more think...
~Summer Breeze~
~Summer Breeze~
Great Things India - 2006
enough has been said about 2006 being as one of the watershed years for india.. maybe it was.. but yes there are positive feelings about the year gone by.. maybe history books will be kind on 2006, not for we have achieved something magnificent, but because we did gain some stature, some confidence , some strength & some self-esteem and didn't lose much steam elsewhere.. it will not be the years that will leave a bitter aftertaste in your mouth.. but will be year that will be in footnotes for lot of reasons... nuclear deal.. continued strength of IT & ITeS.. red hot economy.. great year for investors(be it gold,realty or stocks).. rise of indian trans-nations.. record outbound & inbound inflows... relative political stability.. judicial & media activism.. good job market.. relative lull in terrorism.. no big sectarian or caste riots.. good trade figures.. rise of indian middle class... growth of quality spaces.. the urge to splurge.. vocal indian diaspora.. rising ambitions of young indians..
among the major negatives, the continuing farmers suicides.. the agrarian crisis engulfing rural india.. the alarming gap between rural & urban india.. dismal state of urban poor.. growing criminalization of society.. not much progress on indian science.. still lethargic pace of judicial & police reforms.. the growing chorus of quota-isation of india..
notwithstanding there is hope that this country has a destiny to be among the richest & righteous nations on the face of earth.. and its all that matters...
~The Crystal Ship~
among the major negatives, the continuing farmers suicides.. the agrarian crisis engulfing rural india.. the alarming gap between rural & urban india.. dismal state of urban poor.. growing criminalization of society.. not much progress on indian science.. still lethargic pace of judicial & police reforms.. the growing chorus of quota-isation of india..
notwithstanding there is hope that this country has a destiny to be among the richest & righteous nations on the face of earth.. and its all that matters...
~The Crystal Ship~
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